As the Easter Holiday is almost near, today the forex market economic calendar is very rich with significant economic data related to the economies of Switzerland, Germany, UK, Canada, US and Japan. Due to the importance and number of economic events today the volatility and price action is expected moderate to high, but liquidity is anticipated to decline significantly later on at the close of today’s trading session as tomorrow is Good Friday in several countries.
These are the main economic events in the forex market to focus on today:
European Session
- Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised, UK Nationwide Housing Prices, Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators, Germany Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change
Time: 06:00 GMT, 07:00 GMT, 07:55 GMT
The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator measures future trends of the overall economic activity, capturing the movement of GDP growth and the economic trend in Switzerland. Higher than expected or rising figures are considered positive for the Swiss Franc. The forecast is for a reading of 107.3, lower than the previous figure of 108.0.
Increased figures for Nationwide Housing Prices in UK are positive for the British Pound indicating a robust housing market, measuring the value of the houses prices in UK, an important fundamental factor for the economy in UK. The forecast is for an increase monthly with an expected figure of 0.2%, higher than the previous figure of -0.3%.
The main event which can move the Euro is the Unemployment Rate in Germany, with a lower than expected reading being positive for the Euro, as a higher percentage of total work force is employed, and the increased amount of consumer spending can lead to a higher GDP growth rate. As seen from the chart, the annual average unemployment rate in Germany is declining as of 2005, and is expected to decline marginally to the rate of 5.3%, lower than the previous rate of 5.4%.
This statistic shows the annual average unemployment rate in Germany from 1996 to 2018. For 2018, the annual average unemployment rate was predicted to amount to 5.8 percent. Also a lower than expected reading for the Unemployment Change in Germany is considered positive for the Euro, measuring the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month. The forecast is for a reading of -15K, which is lower than the previous reading of -22k.
- UK GDP Growth Rate, BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Business Investment, Mortgage Lending, GfK Consumer Confidence
Time: 08:30 GMT, 23:01 GMT
An increasing GDP Growth Rate is positive for the local economy, signaling economic growth and expansion with the forecast being for a decline on a yearly basis with a figure of 1.4%, lower than the previous reading of 1.8%, and a decline on a quarterly basis as well, with a figure of 0.4%, less than the previous figure of 0.5%. The forecast for the annual figure if actual may cause the depreciation of the British Pound against other currencies, signaling an economic slowdown. Increased figures for the Consumer Credit, Consumer Confidence, Business Investment and Mortgage Lending will be positive for the British Pound, reflecting a strong housing market, potential higher future consumer spending, and increased business economic activity.
- Germany Inflation Rate, Harmonised Inflation Rate
Time: 12:00 GMT
The harmonised inflation rates are based upon the harmonised consumer price index (HICP) to compare the inflation rate among European countries, measuring the average price for a basket of goods and services. The Inflation Rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 0.5% on a monthly basis, but increase at the rate of 1.7% on an annual basis, higher than the previous rate of 1.4%. While the inflation rate in Germany on a yearly basis seems to have increased, this may have neutral effect on the Euro, as the ECB has stated that most probably there will be no interest rate increases in 2018, depending on the economic conditions.
American Session
- Canada GDP, US Personal Income and Personal Spending, PCE Price Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Fed Harker Speech
Time: 12:30 GMT, 13:45 GMT, 14:00 GMT, 17:00 GMT
Increased figures for the GDP in Canada and all other economic events for the US economy will be positive for the Canadian and the US Dollar. Especially the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is reflecting inflationary pressures in the economy, and will be monitored for any sustained inflationary signs in the economy. Increased business conditions measured by the Chicago PMI and Personal Income and Spending can have a positive impact on the future economic growth. The forecast is for a figure of 62.0 for the Chicago PMI, a marginal increase compared to the previous figure of 61.9.
Pacific Session
- Australia Private Sector Credit
Time: 00:30 GMT
Increased Private Sector Credit figures are positive for the economy in Australia and the Australian Dollar, as in essence means the amount of money which can be used for expenses, leading to higher economic growth.
Asian Session
- Japan Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate
Time: 23:50 GMT
Increased figures for the Industrial Production and declining figures for the Unemployment Rate in Japan are positive for the Japanese Yen, reflecting strength in the manufacturing sector and in the labor market. The forecasts are for a decline for the Industrial Production with a figure of 2.4%, less than the previous figure of 2.5% and an increase for the Unemployment Rate with a figure of 2.6%, higher than the previous figure of 2.4%.
