For most of Wednesday morning, markets drifted. S&P 500 futures hovered near 7,870, gold sat around $4,165 and bitcoin crept toward $84,000. Then the September CPI report landed at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the drift ended in a single five-minute candle.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, a tenth above forecasts, and core inflation beat estimates too. Within minutes the dollar index was up 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures, gold and bitcoin fell. Treasuries and European stocks went down with them. Traders took the data as a sign the Fed may have to raise rates again.
September CPI vs. forecasts
The headline miss was small. The core miss mattered more. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% in September when economists had pencilled in 0.2%, and the annual rate climbed to 2.6%.
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | August |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, year over year | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| CPI, month over month | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Core CPI, year over year | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Core CPI, month over month | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Gasoline did the heavy lifting in the headline number. Pump prices jumped 9.1% in a single month and made up more than half of September’s increase, CBS News reported. US inflation hasn’t been back at the Fed’s 2% target since March 2021.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI release.
How gold, the dollar, stocks and bitcoin reacted
On the 5-minute charts, all six markets share the same shape. A quiet morning, then one long candle at 8:30. The dollar’s candle points up, the rest point down. Levels below are from about 9:05 a.m. ET, and the daily change is against the previous close.
| Asset | Level, 9:05 a.m. ET | Daily change | What happened at 8:30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,110.4 | −66.2 (−1.58%) | Fell from ~4,175 in one candle, the sharpest drop of the group |
| 30-year Treasury bond | 102.81 | −0.97 (−0.93%) | Slid from ~104.1; lower bond price means higher long-term yields |
| Bitcoin | 82,735 | −610 (−0.73%) | Gave up a pre-release rally from ~84,000 |
| US dollar index | 102.62 | +0.64 (+0.63%) | Jumped from ~102.05 and kept climbing |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,824.75 | −31.25 (−0.40%) | Dropped ~50 points from ~7,878 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,200 | +15.0 (+0.24%) | Still green on the day, but lost ~35 points from ~6,235 |
Gold fell the furthest, shedding about $65 in half an hour. Holding gold earns nothing, and that hurts more when the dollar and bond yields are climbing. Bitcoin, often pitched as protection against inflation, sold off alongside stocks instead. European shares got hit too: the Euro Stoxx 50 gave back about 35 points within minutes, though it stayed slightly up on the day.
Why core inflation worried traders more than gasoline
Gas prices swing up and down, and markets often look past them. Core prices are stickier. A second straight 0.3% monthly gain suggests expensive fuel is starting to leak into the rest of the basket.
The timing is awkward for the Fed. It raised rates in September for the first time in more than three years, to a 3.75%–4.00% range, and inflation sped up anyway the following month. That makes another hike easier to argue for than a pause.
Households are bracing for more. In the New York Fed’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations, people said they expect prices to rise 3.9% over the next year, the highest reading since May 2023.
What comes next: PPI, the Fed and PCE
Today’s moves could deepen or unwind over the next two weeks. The Fed decides on rates in late October, before September’s PCE data is out, so CPI and producer prices will count for more than usual. Dates and forecasts are on our economic calendar.
| Date | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| October 15 | September PPI | Shows whether producer costs are still feeding consumer prices |
| Late October | Fed rate decision | First test of whether the Fed hikes again after September |
| October 29 | September PCE | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge |
If producer prices run hot on Thursday, expect more of the same: a stronger dollar and pressure on gold and stocks. A soft number would give them room to bounce. Moves like these happen fast, so if you trade around data releases, start with our guide to CFD trading and the section on long and short positions.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index release
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: September 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations
- CNBC: Consumer prices rose at 3.7% annual rate in September
- CBS News: September CPI report
- Market levels: finviz futures charts, snapshot at ~9:05 a.m. ET
