How to Trade the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP): Top Economic Indicator for USD

July 16, 2024

4 min

If you’ve been trading for a while, you know that the economic calendar can provide useful insights for market analysis. It can also hint at the most promising assets that could bring potential trading opportunities. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is one of the key reports that affects different assets, especially the USD. In this article, you’ll find answers to popular questions like “What is payroll in the financial market?” and “How to trade the Non-Farm Payroll?”, as well as discover possible strategies to stay ahead of the crowd and be the first to react to major changes in the market.

What is Payroll?

Generally speaking, a payroll is a record of a company’s employees who are eligible for wages and additional work benefits, detailing the amounts each employee is to receive.

What is Payroll in the Financial Market?

When it comes to financial markets, the main economic indicator referred as ‘Payroll’ is the Non-Farm Payroll report (NFP). It’s a crucial economic indicator that represents the total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding government employees, those working on farms and in the non-profit sector.

Non-Farm Payroll Schedule and Potential Effect on the Markets

Published by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, the NFP report is typically released on the first Friday of each month. It provides insights into the monthly increase or decrease in paid U.S. workers across most industries, reflecting the overall economic health of the country.

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A higher payroll figure suggests robust economic growth, while a lower figure may indicate economic stagnation or decline.

Assets Influenced by the Non-Farm Payroll

The NFP report significantly impacts various financial assets, particularly in the forex and stock markets. Here’s what you can look for when using this economic indicator for market analysis.

Forex Market

The NFP report can often lead to substantial fluctuations in the forex market. A higher-than-expected NFP number typically strengthens the U.S. dollar as it signals economic growth. This may cause forex traders to favour the dollar against other currencies. Conversely, a lower-than-expected NFP figure weakens the dollar as it suggests economic weakness, forcing traders to look for other opportunities.

Stock Market

The stock market is also sensitive to NFP data. Positive job growth can boost investor confidence, leading to higher stock prices, as it indicates a healthy economy. However, if the job growth is too strong, it may raise concerns about potential inflation and the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which can negatively affect stock prices. On the other hand, disappointing job growth can lead to stock market declines due to concerns about economic slowdown. So it’s important to keep in mind all these factors if you decide to trade the Non-Farm Payroll.

Trading the Non-Farm Payroll: Popular Strategies

Trading the NFP report can be both profitable and volatile. Here are a few strategies to consider.

Trading before the release of the NFP report

Some traders take positions before the NFP release based on expected figures. For example, if market expectations are for strong job growth, traders might go long on the U.S. dollar or related assets. You can always check the expected figures in the IQ Option economic calendar. It can be accessed directly in the traderoom or on the official website.

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls figures on the IQ Option traderoom
Previous Non-Farm Payrolls figures on the IQ Option traderoom

Trading after the release of the NFP report

Another approach is to wait for the NFP data release and then react based on whether the results are higher or lower than expected. For instance, if the NFP report shows a significant increase in job numbers (e.g., over 100,000), it typically boosts the U.S. dollar. Traders might then buy USD pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD.

You may also choose to wait for the market to react to the released figures and reflect the changes on the price charts. This way, you might enter the market with more confidence and avoid initial volatility caused by the news

So now that you’ve found answers to popular questions like “What is payroll?” and “How to trade the Non-Farm payroll?” are you ready to enter the markets and dominate? Head over to the IQ Option traderoom to give it a go. And don’t forget to use the risk-management tools and strategies to protect and grow your capital, starting from small investments.

What should you learn next? Turn the wheel to find out!

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