The last trading session for this week and also the last full trading week in the forex market has several important economic news, related to the economies of Switzerland, Germany, UK, Canada and US. The lack of liquidity due to early close of some financial markets may provide some short-term increased volatility and price action for major currencies.
These are the main economic events for today in the forex market to focus on:
European Session
- Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators and Current Account, Germany GfK Consumer Confidence, France GDP Growth Rate, Italy Consumer and Business Confidence, Spain Balance of Trade
Time: 07:00 GMT, 07:45 GMT, 08:00 GMT, 09:00 GMT
Higher than expected or rising figures for Swiss business confidence, German consumer confidence, Italy consumer and business confidence, GDP growth rate of France, and finally Spain balance of trade will be supportive and positive for the local currencies, i.e. the Swiss Franc and the Euro signaling economic expansion and growth.
- UK GDP Growth Rate, Current Account, Business Investment
Time: 09:30 GMT
As Brexit negotiations evolve over time, fundamentals are always too important for the British economy and Pound. A lower Current Account deficit, and higher figures for business investment and GDP growth rate will be positive for the British Pound, signaling a robust economic and business environment. However the GDP growth rate is expected to remain unchanged to 1.5% on a yearly basis, and marginally increase on a quarterly basis to 0.4%, compared to the previous figure of 0.3%, which can be considered neutral to slightly positive.
American Session
- Canada GDP Growth, US Durable Goods Orders, US PCE Price Index, US Personal Income and Spending
Time: 13:30 GMT
The USD/CAD currency pair most probably will witness moderate to high volatility when the series of economic news are released. Higher than expected readings for Canada GDP growth will be supportive for the Canadian Dollar signaling a strong and expanding economy, but so will higher readings for US Durable Goods, personal income, spending, and PCE Price Index. Especially for the PCE Price Index higher than expected or rising readings indicate higher personal consumption spending, which is positive for economic growth, but can also lead to higher rates of inflation. In general higher readings of the Index are positive for the US Dollar showing increased personal consumption which is indicative of a broader optimism by the consumers about the future economic outlook.
- US New Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
Time: 15:00 GMT, 16:00 GMT
Rising figures or better than expected readings for new home sales are positive for the US Dollar, as real estate market is tightly connected to the economic conditions. The forecast is for a decline with a figure of 0.654Million, less than the previous reading of 0.685Million. Also a decline is expected for the consumer sentiment, which is negative for the US Dollar, as consumers can seriously influence the growth rate of the national economy. A higher than expected reading for Kansas Fed manufacturing activity, will be supportive for the US Dollar, reflecting increased business and economic activity in the manufacturing sector.
