Fortune has recently published a list of things we, as traders, should expect from 2019 (or at least be aware of). As any prediction, those are of course not set in stone. However, it is always good for a trader to anticipate certain events, no matter good or bad, and be prepared to them. Read the full article to learn what opportunities the world has to offer to the trading community.
1. The US-China Deal
Experts believe an agreement could finally be met between the world’s two biggest economies, the United States and China. Should this happen, the exchange rate of the USD and the CNY will most certainly appreciate, reflecting hopes for another economic revival. US gross domestic product has already suffered from the escalating conflict between the two superpowers. President Trump, the one responsible for the conflict, can capitalize on the agreement and use it during the 2020 presidential campaign, that’s why it is quite likely.
2. High-tech
According to the Fortune experts, the upcoming year will be good for the high-tech industry, including Amazon and Tesla. Amazon will be capable to succeed in yet another industry — something it has done several times. Amazon is now competing with Facebook and Google in the field of online advertising. This year, Amazon occupied 4.2% of the US market but is expected to be over 8% over the course of the next year. Analysts believe Tesla will deliver its first $35.000 car (so-called Model 3, a cheaper version of the original vehicle) in the upcoming year. As a result, shares of the above-mentioned companies have a chance of going up. First generation of 5G smartphones is still expected to fail, though.
3. The Downfall of Facebook
Although Facebook was doing OK from the financial standpoint, the company was at the center of several PR scandals that can negatively affect its wellbeing in the long run. People are getting more and more frustrated with security breaches and fake news. All of the above, paired with the Cambridge Analytica scandal can bring the stock price of the social media giant down.
4. International Turmoil
Despite the probability of a peace (or, at least an armistice between the US and China), international environment can be expected to remain fragile and unstable. Military conflicts and political tensions often translate into economic disunity and poor performance. Todd Horwitz, chief strategist at investment advisor Bubba Trading, for example, believes the US market may lose up to 20% of its market capitalization. It can also very well be that we are getting closer to another financial crisis.
5. Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin in particular, have been dubbed the worst investment of 2018. This asset class has lost on average 80% of its value over the course of only one year. What should you, as a trader, expect from BTC and its younger peers in 2019? Probably, not much. Most probably, we are not going to witness another period of rapid growth, as it happened back in 2017. Willy Woo, an independent crypto researcher, mentions Q2 2019 as the end of the bear market.
2019 in numbers
Fortune experts expect:
- One barrel of oil to be worth $80 by the end of 2019 (one barrel of Brent crude is now traded at around $51).
- Federal funds rate to stay at 3%, despite the cooling economic growth.
- U.S. home prices (an important metric that correlates with the wellbeing of American economy as a whole) to grow 1.5%.
Source: Predictions for 2019: Fortune’s Crystal Ball for the Year Ahead
