The main economic event today in the forex market is the Fed interest rate decision. Other than this very significant economic announcement, there is important economic data on the manufacturing activity of US and other countries, UK, Switzerland, and Japan. Moderate to high volatility is expected today for currencies, mainly the US Dollar currency pairs.
These are the main economic events to focus on today in the forex market:
European Session
- Russia Markit Manufacturing PMI
Time: 06:00 GMT
Manufacturing Purchase Manager’s Index records business conditions in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for the overall economic sector. A value above 50.0 indicates industry expansion and below indicates contraction.
- UK NationWide Housing Prices, Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
Time: 07:00 GMT, 09:30 GMT
The NationWide Housing Prices measures and tracks the change in value of houses in the UK, providing important insights on the state of the housing market. Higher prices signal a strong demand for houses, which is a positive for the British Pound, reflecting higher optimism for current economic conditions and inflationary pressures, which can lead to higher interest rates to fight inflation. On a monthly basis the prices of houses are expected to show an increase of 0.2%, same as per previous reading, and on a yearly basis the forecast is for an increase of 2.2%, higher than the previous reading of 2.0%. The manufacturing activity measured by the PMI, is expected to show a reading of 55.8, marginally lower than the previous reading of 55.9. But any strong figure for the housing prices will weigh on the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow.
- Switzerland SVME Manufacturing PMI, SNB Zurbrugg Speech
Time: 08:30 GMT, 17:15 GMT
Manufacturing activity for Switzerland is expected to show an expansion with a reading of 61.5, marginally lower than the previous reading of 61.7
American Session
- US ADP Employment Change, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Time: 12:15 GMT, 13:45 GMT, 14:00 GMT
The ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, and provides useful insights a few days before the announcement of non-farm payrolls for the labor market. Higher than expected or rising figures are positive for the US Dollar, and the forecast is for a figure of 200K, higher than the previous reading of 135K. Also higher readings for the ISM Manufacturing PMI reflect expansion for the manufacturing sector, with the forecast being a reading of 59.5, an expansion but a slower pace, compared to the previous reading of 60.8.
- US Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Employment and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change, Crude Oil Stocks Change
Time: 14:00 GMT, 14:30 GMT
The weekly US Crude Oil Inventories have in many cases a huge impact on the Crude Oil prices, especially in the event of large surprises in the actual readings compared to the forecasts, and can move also the USD/CAD currency pair as well. Rising figures for construction spending and manufacturing employment will be positive for the US Dollar reflecting strong economic and business activity.
- Fed Interest Rate Decision, Total Vehicle Sales
Time: 18:00 GMT, 19:30 GMT
The main economic event of the day, which can set the tone and trend for the US Dollar this week, along with the non-farm payrolls report on Friday 3rd November 2017. Although the forecast is for the Fed to leave the key interest rate unchanged, the forex market will focus on statements about one more interest rate increase before the end of this year, plus statements on inflation and economic growth and economic conditions. The Total Vehicle Sales reflect in general consumer confidence, meaning that when consumers are more optimistic about the general economic outlook they will be more likely to purchase new vehicles. Higher readings are positive for the US Dollar.
Asian Session
- Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Final and BoJ Nakaso Speech
Time: 00:30 GMT and 06:00 GMT
The manufacturing activity in Japan is expected to show an expansion, but at a slower pace, as the forecast is for a reading of 52.5, lower than the previous reading of 52.9. The speech of the Bank of Japan Official is also important for insights and statements on economic policy and conditions for the economy of Japan.
