Today there are several important economic events related to the economy of Germany, Switzerland, US, Russia, Australia and New Zealand. As we approach the Christmas holiday’s season sideways trading may be the dominant trend, although the forex market will weigh on new fundamental news for the formation of any new trends until the end of this year.
These are the main economic events for today to focus on the forex market:
European Session
- Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts, Germany IFO Expectations, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Business Climate
Time: 06:45 GMT, 09:00 GMT
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs publishes its forecasts for Switzerland’s economic development and growth on a quarterly basis, providing important analysis and forecasts on GDP growth, unemployment rate, personal consumption, investments, consumer price index. Higher than expected forecasts are considered positive and supportive for the Swiss economy and the Swiss Franc.
The IFO expectations about the German economy can influence the Euro, as higher than expected or rising figures for the largest economy in the Eurozone, will support also the Euro as well. The IFO expectations is an important indicator about current economic conditions and business expectations for the next six months, with rising figures being positive for the Euro. The forecasts are for an increase of the readings about Business Climate and Current Conditions, but also for a small decline for IFO Expectations.
- Eurozone Construction Output, Russia Unemployment Rate
Time: 10:00 GMT, 13:00 GMT
Rising figures for construction output will be positive and supportive for the Euro, reflecting a robust construction sector, while a declining unemployment rate in Russia will be positive for the Russian Ruble. The forecast is for an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1%.
American Session
- US Current Account, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Kashkari Speech, API Crude Oil Stock Change
Time: 13:30 GMT, 18:10 GMT, 21:30 GMT
The current account is an important indicator revealing information about the general state of the economy, and as it includes the balance of trade rising or better than expected figures and a surplus are considered positive for the local currency. The forecast is for a narrower current account deficit, with a figure of -$117.2Billion, less than the previous figure of -$123.10Billion, and this can be considered a moderate positive factor for the US Dollar.
Another positive factor will be rising figures of Building Permits and Housing Starts, reflecting a strong housing market. The forecasts are however for declining figures both for Housing Starts and Building Permits, and any large negative surprise may cause selling pressure for the US Dollar, at least in the short-term. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Change provides an overview of US petroleum demand, and any large positive or negative surprises, have the potential to move crude prices. For example if the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is considered positive and supportive for crude prices.
Pacific Session
- RBA Meeting Minutes, New Zealand Current Account and Balance of Trade
Time: 00:30 GMT, 21:45 GMT
The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes have the potential to move the Australian Dollar as they can provide insights on the future interest rate path and economic conditions, growth. The current account for the New Zealand is expected to show a very large deficit, with a figure of –NZ $4.29Billion, much higher than the previous figure of NZ $-0.62Billion, a figure which can be considered negative for the New Zealand economy and its local currency.
The figure for the trade of balance is expected to show a deficit of NZ $-550 Million, much lower than the previous figure of NZ $-871Million. But as the Current Account includes the balance of trade, plus net income from abroad and net current transfers, the large Current Account Deficit signals net income and capital outflows from New Zealand, which can be considered negative and has the potential to weigh on the future depreciation of the New Zealand Dollar so as to improve the Current Account. Still the Current Account deficit can help economic growth, but it is not sustainable over the long-run.
