Today the economic calendar in the forex market in contrast with yesterday’s economic data, is very rich and full of very important economic events related to the economies of UK, Eurozone, Germany, US, Australia and Japan. With all these important economic news moderate to high volatility is expected in the forex market.
These are the main economic events to focus on in the forex market today:
European Session
- Germany GDP Growth Rate, Inflation Rate, Norway GDP Growth Rate
Time: 07:00 GMT
Higher readings for both GDP growth and inflation rate are positive for the German economy and the Euro, reflecting higher economic growth and inflationary pressures. As the ECB has recently stated though that key interest rates will remain low for a sustained amount of time, the key focus will be on economic growth. For Germany the expectations are for an unchanged GDP growth of 0.6% on a quarterly basis, and a decline for Norway with a reading of 0.5%, lower than the previous reading of 1.1%.
- Sweden Inflation Rate, Italy GDP Growth Rate
Time: 08:30 GMT, 09:00 GMT
The inflation rate for Sweden is expected to remain unchanged to 0.1% on a monthly basis, but decline to 1.8%, lower than the previous reading of 2.1%. This reading will probably put zero pressure to the Sveriges Riksbank, the central bank of Sweden to increase the key interest rate. The GDP growth rate for Italy is expected to increase to 1.6% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous reading of 1.5%, and to 0.4% on a quarterly basis, higher than the previous figure of 0.3%. This is positive for the economy of the Italy and supportive for the Euro.
- UK Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate
Time: 09:30 GMT
The inflation rate for UK is expected to increase to 3.1% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous reading of 3.0%, while the core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy and is a more conservative rate of inflation, is expected to increase to 2.8% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous figure of 2.7%. This is positive news for the British Pound, but again as mentioned before for the ECB, the Bank of England has mentioned that it will follow a conservative approach on future interest rate increases, so the increase of the inflation rate in UK may have only a short-term influence on the British Pound.
- Eurozone GDP Growth Rate, Eurozone Industrial Production and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Germany ZEW Current Conditions and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, ECB Draghi Speech, ECB Coeure Speech
Time: 10:00 GMT, 15:30 GMT
The GDP growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to increase to 2.5% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous figure of 2.3%, but the industrial production is expected to decline with a figure of 3.2% on a yearly basis, lower than the previous figure of 3.8%. This economic data is expected to show a mixed picture for the Eurozone and can add volatility for the Euro. Rising or better than expected figures related for the economic expectations and conditions for the Eurozone and Germany will be supportive and positive for the Euro, reflecting increased optimism about the future economic and business outlook. The speeches from the central bank officials are important for insights and changes in monetary policy and economic conditions in the Eurozone, and can also influence the Euro.
American Session
- Fed Evans Speech, PPI, IEA Oil Market Report, Fed Bullard Speech
Time: 08:05 GMT, 09:00 GMT, 13:15 GMT, 13:30 GMT
The U.S. Producer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. The PPI is one of the key indicators that help to estimate the inflation rate. On a monthly basis the PPI is expected to decline to 0.1%, lower than the previous figure of 0.4%, and the Core PPI, which excludes the volatile prices of energy and food is expected to decline on a monthly basis with a reading of 0.2%, lower than the previous figure of 0.4%. The forex market anticipates one more interest rate increase by the Fed until the end of this year, so this data may add volatility for the US Dollar.
- API weekly Crude Oil Stock
Time: 21:30 GMT
The weekly report on the US petroleum demand can move the crude prices, especially if there are significant surprises in the actual versus expected figures.
Pacific Session
- Australia NAB Business Confidence, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index and Consumer Confidence Change
Time: 00:30 GMT, 23:30 GMT
Higher than expected or rising figures will be positive and supportive for the Australian Dollar, as both business and consumer confidence can lead to higher economic growth based on consumer and business spending.
Asian Session
- Japan GDP Growth
Time: 23:50 GMT
The GDP growth rate for Japan is expected to decline on both annual and quarterly basis, a negative effect for the Japanese economy and Japanese Yen. Higher rates of economic growth are more attractive for any economy, as they attract capital inflows, increase demand for local currency and often lead to its appreciation against other currencies.
