Economic data from the UK dominates today in the European Session, with the Unemployment Rate in Australia in the Pacific Session, National Consumer Price Index in Japan in Asian Session and Job data for the US in American Session being the key economic events which can move the forex market. Increased price action and volatility is expected for British Pound, the Australian and the US Dollar, and the Japanese Yen.
Key economic events in the forex market for today:
European session
- UK Retail Sales, Retail Sales excluding Fuel, BoE Cunliffe Speech
Time: 08:30 GMT, 16:30 GMT
The Retail Sales year-over-year in UK are expected to increase at 2.0%, higher than the previous figure of 1.5%, but on a month-over-month basis a decline is expected with a figure of -0.5%, lower than the previous figure of 0.8%. The Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, providing important information about consumer spending, an indicator of overall economic activity measured by the GDP growth rate. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the British Pound.
American Session
- FOMC Member Brainard Speech, US Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Fed Quarles Speech, FOMC Member Mester Speech
Time: 12:00 GMT, 12:30 GMT, 13:30 GMT, 22:45 GMT
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index measures level of general business conditions in Philadelphia, with increasing levels indicating improving conditions being positive for the US Dollar. The forecast is for a reading of 20.1, lower than the previous figure of 22.3. Declining readings for both the Initial and the Continuing Jobless Claims in US are positive and supportive for the US Dollar, reflecting a strong labor market. The forecast is for lower Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims readings, which should provide support for the US Dollar. The several Speeches can move the US Dollar if there are updated insights on current economic conditions.
Pacific Session
- Australia Unemployment Rate, Employment Change
Time: 01:30 GMT
The Unemployment Rate in Australia for the past 12-months has been in the range of 5.4%-5.8%, with latest reading rising slightly to 5.6 percent in February of 2018 from 5.5 percent in the previous month. Lower than expected Unemployment Rate figures and increasing Employment Change figures are positive for the economy of Australia and the Australian Dollar reflecting a strong labor market, increased consumer spending and probably higher future economic growth. The forecast is for a decline and a reading of 5.5%, lower than the previous reading of 5.6% and an increase for the Employment Change with a reading of 21.0K, higher than the previous reading of 17.5K.
Asian Session
- Japan National Consumer Price Index
Time: 23:30 GMT
The Inflation Rate in Japan in the past 12-months has increased from the low level of 0.2% to the most recent high level of 1.5%. Increased readings are considered positive for the Japanese Yen, as the Bank of Japan may weigh on the sustained inflationary pressures and shift its monetary policy, increasing the key interest rate.
The forecast is for a year-over-year reading of 1.1%, lower than the previous reading of 1.5%, while the Core National Consumer Price Index, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy is expected to have an unchanged year-over-year reading of 0.5%. The Core CPI is more conservative and more indicative of the real inflationary pressures in the economy, suggesting that there are not any significant inflationary pressures now in the Japanese economy.
