The forex market today has a very rich economic calendar with 3 central banks interest rate decisions, first from the Swiss National Bank, and then from The Bank of England and the ECB, so there is high expected volatility for major currencies and currency pairs, such as the Euro, The British Pound and the Swiss Franc. One day after the Fed interest rate decision, the rest of this trading month should provide new trends, either reversals or continuations for many major currencies as the forex market participants will focus on the fundamental and macroeconomic events such as the monetary policy decisions to adjust their trading positions.
These are the main economic events for today in the forex market to focus on:
European Session
- France Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI, Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI
Time: 08:00 GMT, 08:30 GMT, 09:00 GMT
The indicators of the health of the manufacturing sector and services sector are expected to decline with the exception of the services sector for Germany. Although any readings above the 50.0 level represent expansion for the sectors, lower readings indicate that the growth is slowing down, which is considered negative for the Euro.
- SNB Interest Rate Decision, Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report
Time: 08:30 GMT, 09:00 GMT
The start of the monetary policy decisions for today is set by the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank. Interest rate decisions are considered top economic events, which often move significantly the forex market. The expectations are for unchanged key interest rates for both of the central banks.
- UK Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Fuel, BoE Interest Rate Decision, MPC Meeting Minutes, BoE Quantitative Easing
Time: 09:30 GMT, 12:00 GMT
High volatility is expected for the British Pound, initially with the readings related to the retail sales, and then the monetary decision by the Bank of England. Higher than expected or rising figures for retail sales are considered positive for the economy of UK and the British Pound, reflecting higher consumer spending and increased consumer confidence, which often lead to higher economic growth. The forecasts are for an increase in retail sales both on a yearly and a monthly basis, which should provide support for the British Pound and may lead to its appreciation against other currencies. The forecast for the monetary policy decision is for an unchanged key interest rate at 0.50%, but this can add further volatility as the forex market will weigh on the future interest rates path and their prospects.
- ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Deposit Facility Rate, ECB Press Conference
Time: 12:45 GMT, 13:30 GMT
An unchanged monetary policy decision is expected, still as in the case of the Bank of England the Press Conference later on can influence the Euro as there will statements of economic conditions in the Eurozone, plus comments on economic growth and future interest rate path.
American Session
- IEA Oil Market Report, Canada New Housing Price Index, US Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Export and Import Prices
Time: 09:00 GMT, 13:30 GMT
An oil market repot can move the oil prices with insights on the supply/demand forecasts, a higher than expected reading for Canada new housing price index is positive for the Canadian Dollar, signaling a robust housing market, while lower than expected readings for US initial jobless claims and higher retail sales, export and import prices, will be positive for the US Dollar, reflecting a strong labor market, increased consumer spending, and inflationary pressures.
- US Markit Manufacturing PMI, Composite PMI, Services PMI, Business Inventories, EIA Natural GAS Stocks Change
Time: 14:45 GMT, 15:00 GMT, 15:30 GMT
Rising figures for the Markit purchasing managers’ index are positive and supportive for the US economy and the US Dollar, reflecting economic and business expansion. Large surprises positive or negative for the Natural Gas Stocks Change can move mainly the Canadian Dollar, while lower than expected business inventories are considered positive for the US economy, as in a strong business environment, demand should be high and inventories should be relatively low. In general high readings for business inventories can often indicate a lack of consumer demand, which is not a positive factor for the broader economic growth.
Pacific Session
- Australia Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Full Time Employment, New Zealand Business PMI
Time: 00:30 GMT, 21:30 GMT
Lower than expected or declining figures for the unemployment rate and rising ones for the employment change are positive for the Australian Dollar. The forecasts are for an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.4%, but a significant increase for the employment change, with a figure of 19.2K, much higher than the previous figure of 3.7K. For the New Zealand Dollar, rising readings for the manufacturing PMI, will be positive, signaling further economic and business expansion.
Asian Session
- Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, Tankan large Manufacturers Index
Time: 00:30 GMT, 23:50 GMT
Again higher than expected or rising figures for the manufacturing PMI and the business confidence will be positive and supportive for the Japanese Yen. The business confidence is expected to rise having a figure of 24, higher than the previous figure of 22, signaling more optimistic future business expectations.
