The trading session week June 18-22 in the forex market starts today with a very light economic calendar. There are however several speeches by senor central bank officials to pay attention to, and mainly an ECB President Draghi speech, whose speech during the past week regarding the ECB monetary policy decision moved significantly lower the Euro against other currencies.
On Friday, June 15, 2018 the yearly Inflation Rate in the Eurozone came in as expected at the rate of 1.9%, while the University of Michigan Sentiment Index beat the expectations with a figure of 99.3, higher than the forecast of 98.5. Overall low volatility is expected today in the forex market. Trade wars sentiment may influence the forex market and the risk perception as new tariffs were imposed by the US and China on each other recently.
These are the key economic events to focus on today in the forex market:
European Session
- Italy: Balance of Trade, Germany: Bundesbank Monthly Report, Russia: GDP Growth Rate YoY Final, Eurozone: ECB President Draghi Speech
Time: 08:00 GMT, 10:00 GMT, 13:00 GMT, 17:00 GMT
The Balance of Trade for Italy shows the balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, increased demand for goods and services denominated in Euros, capital inflows in the country and is considered positive for the Euro and the economy of Italy. As seen from the below chart apart from January 2018, there is a constant trade surplus for the Balance of Trade in Italy, with significant volatility. The forecast is for a narrower trade surplus of 3.21B, lower than the previous figure of 4.531B Euros.
The monthly Bundesbank Report contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides insights of current and future economic conditions for the economy of Germany. The yearly final GDP Growth Rate in Russia is expected to increase at the rate of 1.3%, higher than the previous rate of 0.9%, reflecting expansion in the economy, considered a positive fundamental factor for the Russian Ruble. Later the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi and his comments may determine positive or negative the Euro’s trend in the short-term.
American Session
- US: Fed Dudley Speech, Fed Duke Speech, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Canada: BoC Patterson Speech
Time: 12:45 GMT, 13:00 GMT, 14:00 GMT, 17:00 GMT, 20:00 GMT
NAHB Housing Market Index measures home sales and expected home buildings in the future indicating housing market trend in the United States. Higher than expected or rising figures for the NAHB Housing Market Index are considered positive and supportive for the US economy and the US Dollar, as the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy, and growth in the housing market will probably have positive effects on consumer spending, and economic growth. The forecast is for an unchanged reading of 70.0 for the NAHB Housing Market Index, which as of January 2018 has been trending lower, and the low-price so far for 2018 has been the value of 68.0 in April 2018.AllAll
All the speeches by senior central bank officials have the potential to bring further volatility in the forex market for the US and the Canadian Dollar, at least temporarily.
