The new trading week in the forex market which starts today, on 5th February until 9th February 2018 has 3 important monetary policy decisions, from the Royal Bank of New Zealand, the Royal Bank of Australia and the Bank of England.
As fundamentals and monetary policy have a large influence on the forex market, other than other factors such as momentum trading and external factors, at the end key economic events such as economic growth, inflation and unemployment rate, along with the level of key interest rates will influence the trends for the currency pairs.
Last week we saw several positive economic events for the US Dollar, a strong non-farm payrolls report, low unemployment rate, increased average hourly earnings, and a strong University of Michigan Sentiment Index reading, which can influence its trend this week.
These are the main economic events in the forex market to focus on today:
European Session
- Spain Markit Services PMI and Consumer Confidence, Italy Markit/ADACI Services PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI
Time: 08:15 GMT, 08:45 GMT, 09:00 GMT, 09:30 GMT
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Services released by Markit Economics, measures business conditions in the services sector. A reading above 50 signals positive sentiment for the Euro and business expansion in the services sector, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative. Higher than expected or positive readings will be supportive and positive for the Euro and the British Pound.
The forecasts are for higher readings for all Markit Services PMIs, while a rising figure for the consumer confidence in Spain will also be positive for the Euro as increased consumer leads to higher economic growth measured by the GDP level.
- Eurozone Retail Sales, Russia GDP Growth Rate, ECB Draghi Speech
Time: 10:00 GMT, 13:00 GMT, 16:00 GMT
Retail sales measure the value of goods and services sold at a retail level and they indicate the level of consumption and consumer confidence, with rising figures of consumer confidence leading to higher economic growth, and probably inflationary pressures in the economy. Rising or better than expected figures of retail sales are therefore considered positive for the Euro. However the forecasts are for lower figures of retail sales in the Eurozone, both on a monthly and a yearly basis.
The expectation is for a yearly figure of 1.9%, lower than the previous figure of 2.8%, and a negative reading of -1.0% on a monthly basis, significantly lower than the previous reading of 1.5%.These readings may influence negatively the Euro upon their release. A higher than expected GDP growth rate for Russia will be positive for the Russian Ruble, as the GDP growth rate is the most indicative measurement of economic growth for any specific economy. Later on a speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi can add additional volatility for the Euro depending on the statements and any updated information on current economic conditions and monetary policy decisions.
American Session
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite, Markit Services and Composite PMI Final
Time: 14;45 GMT, 15:00 GMT
An important economic indicator about the economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector, with readings about the 50.0 level indication expansion for the non-manufacturing sector being supportive and positive for the US Dollar. The forecast is for a reading of 56.6, higher than the previous reading of 55.9, which should influence positively the US Dollar.
Pacific Session
- Australia TD Securities Inflation
Time: 00:00 GMT
An estimate of the inflation in the economy of Australia, with rising figures being positive for the Australian Dollar, reflecting inflationary pressures which may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow to raise the key interest rate.
Asian Session
- Japan Nikkei PMI Services and PMI Composite
Time: 00:30 GMT
As in the case of Eurozone and the US economy, high or rising figures will be supportive for the Japanese Yen reflecting a robust services sector, and a broader strong economic and business activity in Japanese economy.
