The weekly trading session for April 23-27 is ending today with a very rich economic calendar, full of important economic data related tot the GDP Growth Rate in several economies in the Eurozone and in the US. There is also the BoJ Interest Rate Decision, The Unemployment Rate in Germany and the Business Confidence in the Eurozone. With all this economic data, moderate to high volatility is expected today in the forex market. Relative economic performance in the Eurozone compared to the US will probably weigh on the future trend for the EUR/USD.
Key economic events for today to focus on:
European Session
- France: GDP Growth Rate QoQ, Germany: Unemployment Rate Harmonized, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Change, UK: Nationwide Housing Prices, GDP Growth Rate QoQ and YoY, BoE Haldane Speech, BoE Governor Carney Speech, Spain: Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate QoQ and YoY, Business Confidence, Eurozone: ECB Lautenschlager Speech, ECB Merch Speech, Eurogroup Meeting, Ecofin Meeting, Business Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Switzerland: SNB Chair Jordan Speech, Russia: Interest Rate Decision
Time: 05:30 GMT, 05:45 GMT, 06:00 GMT, 06:45 GMT, 07:00 GMT, 07:55 GMT, 08:00 GMT, 08:30 GMT, 09:00 GMT, 10:15 GMT, 10:30 GMT, 14:00 GMT, 14:15 GMT
The main economic events that will probably add increased volatility and price action for the Euro are the readings for the GDP Growth Rate in France and Spain, the Business Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in Germany. Higher than expected or increased levels of GDP Growth Rate in France and Spain, and a lower than expected or declining Unemployment Rate in Germany, will be positive and supportive for the Euro. The forecast is for a figure of 0.4% for the GDP Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter in France, lower than the previous figure of 0.7%, and an unchanged figure of 0.7% for the GDP Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter in Spain.
The forecast for the Unemployment Rate in Germany is for an unchanged figure of 5.3%, while for the Unemployment Change the forecast is for a figure of -15K, lower than the previous figure of -19K. For the Unemployment Change, lower than expected readings are considered positive for the Euro. The Euro could also move based on the figures related to the Eurozone Business Confidence, Economic Sentiment and Industrial Sentiment.
Higher figures reflect optimism for the economic outlook, and probably increased economic and business activity, which can lead to higher economic growth. The forecast is for a decline for all three mentioned figures, which may influence negatively the Euro.
There are important economic events for the economy of UK, which can move the British Pound, with the release of the GDP Growth Rate Quarter0ver-Quarter and Year-Over-Year, and the Nationwide Housing Prices Index. Increased figures will be positive for the British Pound, reflecting a strong economic growth and a robust housing market. The forecast is for an increase of the Nationwide Housing Price Index Year-over-Year at 2.6%, higher than the previous reading of 2.1%, a decline for the quarterly GDP Growth Rate at 0.3%, lower than the previous figure of 0.4%, and an unchanged yearly GDP Growth Rate at 1.4%. Overall some mixed economic data is expected for the UK economy.
There is also an Interest Rate Decision by the Bank of Russia, with the expectation of unchanged key interest rate at 7.25%, having probably a neutral effect on the Russian Ruble upon its release.
American Session
- US: GDP Price Index QoQ, GDP Growth Rate QoQ, Core PCE prices QoQ, PCE Prices QoQ, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
Time: 12:30 GMT, 14:00 GMT
“The US economy expanded an annualized 2.0 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2017, higher than 2.5 peercent in the second estimate and ebating market expectations of 2.7 percent.” Source: Trading Economics.
The forecast is for a figure of 2.2% GDP Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter, lower than the previous figure of 2.9%. Any positive or negative economic surprise may significantly move the US dollar. In 2017, the US GDP Growth Rate increased after the first quarter of the year.
Higher than expected figures for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and an increased figure for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final will be positive for the US Dollar, reflecting inflationary pressures and increased optimism about the economic outlook.
Asian Session
- Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report, Housing Starts
Time: 03:00 GMT, 05:00 GMT
The Bank of Japan has left the key interest rate unchanged at -0.1% as of 2016, and the expectation is to remain unchanged. The Quarterly Outlook Report will provide insights on the current economic conditions, economic growth and inflation and information on the Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) program. Any positive view on the economic outlook may provide support for the Yen. Also, increased figures for the Housing Starts reflect a robust housing market, and are considered positive for the Japanese Yen.
The forecast is for a Year-over-Year figure of -2.5% for the Housing Starts, higher than the previous figure of -2.6%, but still being negative, which should be considered also a negative fundamental factor for the state of the Japanese economy.
