The Australian GDP Growth Rate release is among the main economic data expected today in the forex market, with a few economic events in the European Session, such as the German Construction PMI and the yearly Inflation Rate in Switzerland. There are several speeches by senior central bank officials, and in the American Session the Trade of Balance for the economies of US and Canada, the IVEY PMI Index for Canada and the weekly US Crude Oil Stocks Change. Moderate to high volatility should be expected today, mainly for the Australian Dollar, the US and the Canadian Dollar.
These are the main economic events for today in the forex market:
- Switzerland: Inflation Rate YoY, Germany: Construction PMI, Bundesbank Beermann Speech, UK: BoE Tenreyro Speech, BoE McCafferty Speech, Eurozone: ECB Praet Speech, ECB Hakkarainen Speech, ECB Angeloni Speech
Time: 07:15 GMT, 07:30 GMT, 08:00 GMT, 10:40 GMT, 13:30 GMT, 16:00 GMT, 16:10 GMT, 18:10 GMT
Higher than expected or rising figures for the Inflation Rate in Switzerland and the Construction PMI in Germany are considered positive and supportive for the Swiss Franc and the Euro, reflecting inflationary pressures in the Swiss Economy and expansion for the construction sector in Germany. The forecast is for an increase of the yearly Inflation Rate in Switzerland at 0.9%, higher than the previous figure of 0.8%. The several speeches by senior central bank officials can move the Euro and the British Pound should any updated information on economic conditions, inflation, economic growth or an imminent shift in monetary policy is evident from the statements.
- US: Balance of Trade, Unit Labor Costs QoQ Q1 Final, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final Q1, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change, Canada: Balance of Trade, Ivey PMI
Time: 12:30 GMT, 14:00 GMT, 14:30 GMT
A trade surplus or lower than expected trade deficit for the Balance of Trade, and higher than expected readings for the Unit Labor Costs and the Nonfarm Productivity are considered positive for the US Dollar, reflecting increased demand for goods and services denominated in US Dollars, capital inflows in the country, an indicator of inflation and productivity which has an influence on the GDP Growth. As seen from the chart below the US economy is having a trade deficit which narrowed in the previous month after several months of widening figures.
“The US trade deficit narrowed to USD 49 billion in March of 2018 from a slightly upwardly revised USD 57.7 billion in the previous month which was the highest since October 2008.”, Source: Trading Economics.
The forecasts are for a widening of the US trade deficit at -50B US Dollars, higher than the previous figure of -49B US Dollars and increases for the Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity, some mixed economic data overall. For the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories if the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, then this implies a weaker than expected demand and is considered negative for crude oil prices.
The Canadian trade deficit is expected to narrow at -3.40B Canadian Dollars, lower than the previous figure of -4.14B Canadian Dollars, while the Ivey PMI Index which measures business conditions in Canada is expected to decline at 69.7, lower than the previous figure of 70.5. Some mixed economic data is also expected for the economy of Canada
- Australia: GDP Growth Rate (YoY Q1, QoQ Q1), AIG Construction Index
Time: 01:30 GMT, 22;30 GMT
The GDP Growth Rate in Australia measures the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia, considered as a broad measure of economic activity and health, with higher than expected or rising figures considered positive and supportive for the Australian Dollar. As seen from the chart, the GDP Annual Growth Rate in Australia after the bottoming level of 1.9% in early 2017 has been volatile but in an uptrend.
The forecast is for increase both for the yearly and quarterly GDP Growth Rate with values of 2.8% and 0.9% respectively, higher than the previous values of 2.4% and 0.4% accordingly. The AIG Construction Index measures the conditions in the construction market, higher than expected readings are considered positive for the Australian Dollar.Trade now