The forex market economic calendar for today Tuesday, May 8, 2018 is relatively thin with only a few economic events, the most important being the Balance of Trade in Germany, which with the release of the German Industrial Production may move the Euro. In the American Session there is economic data about the housing market in Canada and the private job openings in US, plus the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.
Key economic events in the forex market to focus on today:
European Session
- Switzerland: Unemployment Rate, Germany: Industrial Production, Balance of Trade, Sweden: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Time: 05:45 GMT, 06:00 GMT, 07:30 GMT
Higher than expected or rising figures for the trade surplus in Germany and the Industrial production are considered positive and supportive for the Euro. The trade surplus reflects capital inflows in Germany and increased demand for goods and services denominated in
Euros. As seen from the chart, the German trade surplus fell to EUR 18.4 billion in February
of 2018 from EUR 19.8 billion in the same month a year earlier.
In general, the trade surplus is volatile, and can be influenced significantly by the value of the Euro against other currencies. The recent depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar with the currency exchange rate of EUR/USD below the level of 1.20 could be beneficial for the German trade surplus in the following months, if the EUR/USD will remain around this current 1.20 level.
Increased figures for the German Industrial Production are also positive for the Euro, as Industrial Production is a significant economic indicator of the strength of German industrial activity, with Germany being the largest economy in the Euro area. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest further increased production and economic expansion, being a positive fundamental factor for the Euro. The forecast is for a monthly figure of 0.8%, higher than the previous figure of -1.6%.
The Unemployment Rate in Switzerland is expected to decline marginally having a reading of
2.8%, lower than the previous reading of 2.9%, which is considered positive for the Swiss Franc, and may influence positively on its value versus other currencies. The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the central bank in Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank are important providing insights on the monetary policy, which in the past has been mentioned that it needs to remain expansionary for inflation to continue to be close to the 2 percent target.
The central bank has also mentioned in the past that it expects to begin slowly raising the repo rate in the middle of 2018. Therefore, any statements implying any monetary policy change soon may provide support to the Swedish Krona.
American Session
- Canada: Housing Starts, US: JOLTs Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, API Crude Oil Stock Change
Time: 12:15 GMT, 14:00 GMT, 20:30 GMT
Increased figures for the Housing Starts in Canada are positive and supportive for the Canadian Dollar reflecting a strong housing market, a key economic indicator for the broader state of the economy. As seen from the chart “Canadian seasonally adjusted housing starts decreased to 225,213 units in March of 2018 from an upwardly revised 231,026 in February. Figures beat market expectations of 218,000”, Source: Trading Economics.
The trend for the Housing Starts in Canada shows in general an uptrend, which is positive for the overall economy. The forecast is for a reading of 217K, lower than the previous reading of 225.2K.
The US economic data is about the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), TechnoMetrica
Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism Index, which rates the relative
level of economic conditions, including six-month economic outlook, with a level above
50.0 indicating optimism, being positive for the US Dollar. The forecast is for a reading of
51.5, lower than the previous reading of 52.6.
There is also the release of the weekly API Crude Oil Stock Change, providing an overview of the US petroleum demand. If there is an increase in crude inventories which is more than expected, then this implies a weaker than expected demand which is considered bearish for crude oil prices. The JOLTs Job Openings figure is important reflecting the state of the labor market, as higher readings reflect increased job openings in the private sector, being a positive factor for the US Dollar. The forecast is for a figure of 6M, lower than the previous figure of 6.052M.
Pacific Session
- Australia: Retail Sales
Time: 01:30 GMT
Higher Retail Sales figures are positive for the Australian Dollar and the local economy, as they reflect increased consumer spending, which in most cases leads to higher economic growth. Retail sales provide an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific period. The forecast is for a monthly reading of 0.2%, lower than the previous reading of 0.6%, which may influence negatively the Australian Dollar.
