Forex market economic calendar for Tuesday, April 26, 2018
There are a lot of important economic events today, first for the Euro with the ECB Interest Rate Decision, second with the US Dollar with economic data on the Durable Goods Orders and the Advance Goods Trade Balance, and later with the Japanese Yen and the Unemployment Rate in Japan. All this economic data is expected to add increased volatility and price action for today in the forex market.
Key economic events in the forex market for today to focus on:
- Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence, Spain: Unemployment Rate, Sweden: Riksbank Interest Rate Decision, UK: Finance Mortgage Approvals, GfK Consumer Confidence, Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference, ECB Nouy Speech
Time: 06:00 GMT, 07:00 GMT, 07:30 GMT, 08:30 GMT, 11:45 GMT, 12:30 GMT, 16:20 GMT, 23:01 GMT
There are numerous economic events during the European Session, but the focus is on the ECB Interest Rate Decision at 11:45 GMT, which could move the Euro not due to the outcome itself, as the expectation is for an unchanged key interest rate of 0.0%, but probably with the statements and economic projections by the ECB. Recent PMI readings in the Eurozone have been disappointing, while there are not any severe inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, which means that there will probably be not any monetary policy shift any time soon by the ECB.
As seen from the chart, the 5-year Interest Rate in the Eurozone has been in the low-level of 0.0% as of early 2016. With other Central banks, especially the Fed moving into a tighter monetary policy, and the ECB holding unchanged its key interest rate level, the Euro could witness a trend reversal and a potential depreciation versus other major currencies in the second half of the year.
Increased figures for the Consumer Confidence in Germany and declining readings for the Unemployment Rate in Spain are positive and supportive for the Euro. The forecast is for a decline for both readings. The Central bank in Sweden, Riksbank is expected to leave the key interest rate unchanged at -0.5%, which should have a neutral effect on the Swedish Krona.
Higher than expected figures for the Consumer Confidence and Finance Mortgage Approvals in the UK are considered positive and supportive for the British Pound, reflecting a strong housing market, a leading indicator of the broader economy, and increased Consumer optimism on the economic outlook. The forecast is for a decline of the Finance Mortgage Approvals with a reading of 37.1K, lower than the previous reading of 38.1K, and an unchanged figure of -7.0 for the Consumer Confidence, which should have little impact on the British Pound.
- US: Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index, Goods Trade Balance
Time: 12:30 GMT, 15:00 GMT
Durable Goods Orders measure the value of long lasting goods, over a period of 3 years. They indicate optimism on the economic outlook in the future, and a forecast about the state of the economy having a correlation with Consumer Confidence. Increased figures are considered positive for the US Dollar. The forecast is for a monthly figure of 0.6%, lower than the previous figure of 3.1%.
As seen from the chart the US Durable goods Orders are both volatile and do not have a consistent trend over the previous 12 months, with significant increases and declines. The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index reflects the manufacturing activity in the area of Kansas, with increasing figures considered positive for the US Dollar, indicating increased manufacturing activity.
Lower figures for the Wholesale Inventories are also considered positive for the US Dollar, indicating the amount of unsold inventory still in the possession of the wholesalers, and the level of demand and consumer spending. A sustainable period of increasing Wholesale Inventories is a negative fundamental factor for the US economy, pointing at a weak consumer market performance.
- New Zealand: Trade Balance
Time: 22:45 GMT
An increased figure and a trade surplus for the New Zealand Trade balance is positive and supportive for the New Zealand Dollar, showing increased demand for goods and services denominated in the local currency and capital inflows in the economy, which may lead to the natural appreciation of the currency in the future. The forecast is for a monthly trade surplus of 200Million New Zealand Dollars, lower than the previous figure of 217Million New Zealand Dollars.
- Japan: Unemployment Rate, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, Retail Trade
Time: 23:30 GMT, 23:50 GMT
A series of important economic events related to the Japanese economy may move the Japanese Yen should there be any economic surprises. Lower than expected figures for the Unemployment Rate, and higher than expected figures for the Retail Trade and Industrial Production are considered positive for the Yen.
The forecast is for an unchanged figure of 2.5% for the Unemployment Rate, a yearly increase for the reading of Industrial production at 2.0%, higher than the previous figure of 1.6%, an unchanged figure for the yearly Retail Trade at 1.7%, and a decline for the yearly Tokyo CPI reading at 0.8%, lower than the previous reading of 1.0%.
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