The weekly trading session for May 7-11, 2018 is ending today with only a few important economic events, and a focus on economic data related to the economies of Canada, Australia and the US. There are no major events in the European Session, only a Speech from ECB President Mario Draghi and the Balance of Trade for Russia, so moderate to high volatility is expected today only for the Canadian, Australian and the US Dollar versus other currencies.
Key economic events for today to focus on:
European Session
- Russia: Balance of Trade, Eurozone: ECB President Draghi Speech
Time: 13:00 GMT, 13:15 GMT
A higher than expected trade surplus is expected for Russia, with a figure of 16.0 Billion US Dollars, higher than the previous figure of 12.19 Billion US Dollars, which is considered a positive fundamental factor and should be supportive for the Russian Ruble. A higher trade surplus for the economy of Russia reflects capital inflows in the country and increased demand for goods and services denominated in the local currency. Any Speech by the ECB President Draghi is important as it may influence the Euro based on updated statements on current economic conditions.
American Session
- Canada: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, BoC Wilkins Speech, US: Import Prices, Export Prices, Fed Bullard Speech, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Time: 12:30 GMT, 13:00 GMT, 14:00 GMT
The Canada Unemployment Rate has remained unchanged at 5.8% for the past two consecutive months but is trending lower, which is considered a positive fundamental factor for the Canadian Dollar. Lower readings for the Unemployment Rate and higher for the Employment Change are considered positive factors for the economy of Canada, reflecting a robust labor market, and increased future consumer spending, a leading driver for higher economic growth.
As seen from the chart, the Unemployment Rate in Canada for the past 12-months has been in the Low-High range of 5.8%-6.5%. The forecast is for an unchanged reading of 5.8%, and an Employment Change reading of 13.5K, lower than the previous reading of 32.3K. Any positive economic surprise may add increased volatility and most probably will be positive for the Canadian Dollar, which appreciated recently versus other currencies due to the US crude oil rally and the announcement of the US Government for the Iran deal and that sanctions on Iran would be reinstated, a geopolitical factor.
For the US Dollar the main economic event is the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures the level of consumer confidence, with high readings being positive for the US Dollar as higher consumer confidence leads to higher consumer spending and economic growth measured by the GDP level. The forecast is for a reading of 98.0, lower than the previous reading of 98.8, but still trending higher in 2018.
The US Import and Export Prices measure the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically and changes of U.S. export goods respectively and provide useful indication about inflationary pressures in the US Economy. Higher figures for the Import and Export Prices are considered positive for the US Dollar, reflecting also the presence of higher prices and therefore inflationary pressures in the economy.
Pacific Session
- Australia: Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes
Time: 01:30 GMT
The housing market is a leading indicator of the broader economy. Therefore, increased readings for the Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes are both positive and supportive for the economy of Australia, and the Australian Dollar, reflecting a robust housing market.
