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The last trading day of the week and month of September has a very rich economic calendar with important fundamental data related to the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and US Dollar. All these economic news can add increased volatility and price action in the forex market, offering new trends or continuation of existing trends.

These are the most important economic events in the forex market to focus on today.

European Session

  1. Germany Retail Sales

Time: 06:00 GMT

Retail Sales measure the domestic consumer demand and spending with higher readings leading to higher economic growth. On a monthly basis the forecast is for an increase of 0.5%, higher than the previous reading of -1.2% and on a yearly basis for a reading of 3.2%, also an increase compared to the previous reading of 2.7%.

  1. UK Nationwide Housing Prices

Time: 06:00 GMT

Housing prices in the UK are important as the Bank of England is monitoring them as a measure of inflationary pressures, especially if they are rising, which are supportive for the British Pound. The forecast is for an increase on a monthly basis with a reading of 0.3%, higher than the previous reading of -0.1%, and a small increase on a yearly basis with a reading of 2.0%, lower than the previous reading of 2.1%.

  1. Inflation Rate for France, Italy and Eurozone

Time: 06:45 GMT and 09:00 GMT

Any increases in the inflation rates for the mentioned countries increases the odds of the ECB to raise the key interest rate and change its monetary policy, being positive news for the Euro. The inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to show an increase with a reading of 1.6% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous reading of 1.5%.

  1. Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators

Time: 07:00 GMT

The KOF Leading Indicators provide important information about the future economic outlook of the country, with rising readings being positive for the Swiss Franc and a forecast for a reading of 105.5, an increase compared to the previous reading of 104.1.

  1. Germany Unemployment Rate

Time: 07:55 GMT

Lower unemployment rates are positive for the local economy, indicating a robust economy and higher economic growth due to the higher consumer spending as a greater percentage of the labor force is employed. The forecast for the month of September is an unchanged reading of 5.7%.

  1. UK GDP Growth Rate

Time: 08:30 GMT

The broader measure of the growth of the economy and whether it is expanding and at what pace, showing an accelerating economic growth or not, will be released with a forecast of an increase on a quarterly basis and a reading of 0.3%, compared to the previous reading of 0.2%, but a decline for the yearly reading of 1.7%, compared to the previous reading of 2.0%. In other words the forecasts are for an acceleration of the economic growth on a quarterly basis, but for a decline in the growth on a longer term basis, that is yearly basis. Higher economic growth is positive for the British Pound and can lead to future change of the monetary policy with interest rate increases, as recently stated by the Bank of England.  Any surprises can add volatility in all related British Pound currency pairs.

  1. Speeches from Bank of England Official and ECD President

Time: 12:30 GMT and 14:15 GMT

Any speech from a central bank is noteworthy for changes in monetary policy and economic growth prospects.

American Session

  1. Canada Gross Domestic Product growth

Time: 12:30 GMT

As in the case of England, a very important economic indicator, with a forecast of a 0.1% increase on a monthly basis, a decline from the previous increase of 0.3%. Any surprise can move the Canadian Dollar either with an appreciation or a depreciation against other currency pairs.

  1. US PCE Price Index

Time: 12:30 GMT

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is another measure of the inflation rate, with a focus on personal consumption, expected to show an increase of 1.5% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous figure of 1.4%, and an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis, higher than the previous increase of 0.1%. The Core Index, being a more conservative one as it excludes the volatile prices of food and energy is expected also to rise to 0.2% on a monthly basis, higher than the previous reading of 0.1%. Higher readings are positive for the US Dollar as it increase the odds of a near future interest rate increase.

  1. US Personal Spending and Personal Income

Time: 12:30 GMT

The monthly readings provide insight on the state of the US economy, and rising readings are positive for the US Dollar indicating more income to spend, and higher economic growth.

  1. Chicago PMI

Time: 13:45 GMT

An indicator for the Chicago area business conditions, with a rising reading reflecting economic expansion.

  1. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Expectations and Current Conditions

Time: 14:00 GMT

All these 3 readings show the consumer sentiment both at present and in the near future, with rising figures being positive for the US Dollar as consumers may increase their spending, leading ot higher economic growth in terms of GDP.

  1. Fed Official Speech

Time: 15:00 GMT

With a speech of a central bank official, the forex market can always wait for the unexpected statement, having the potential to move the US Dollar either up or down.

Pacific Sector

  1. Australia Private Sector Credit

Time: 01:30 GMT

The forecast is for an unchanged reading of 0.5% on a monthly basis and a small increase on a yearly basis with a reading of 5.5%, compared to the previous reading of 5.3%. The credit for the private sector in the case of an expansion is positive for the economy, leading to higher future economic growth.

Asian Session

  1. Japan Housing Starts

Time: 05:00 GMT

On a yearly basis the reading is expected to be at 0.9%, much higher than previous reading of -2.3%. In general a rising figure is positive for the economy, and the Japanese Yen, as it indicates overall increased economic growth.

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NOTE: This article is not an investment advice. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational and based on external analysis and we do not warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
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